Yep, pretty much where I’m at though I haven’t listened to any interviews. I know he’s solid but I disagree with the approach to the #4 pick even to the point of willing to risk the headache of ace or whatever bust potential there may be with tre. It’s rare you’re in that spot to swing at a high probability home run. You can get “solid” anywhere, anytime especially if you’re willing to pay for it. Fine with that strategy for the other 3 picks. But I digress. And so we move on.
I see and understand the vision. I value the shooting, good character, team first attitude. I trust Peterson and Lee and get how they’re building a team. I hope our only two potential star players do what they have yet to do and remain healthy so our plethora of “Young immediate impact” role players and glue guys can support them to stardom. I’m nowhere near as excited as you all but I see the path and I hope it works out.
Thank you for taking the time to post this because it reflects A LOT of my feelings until I saw the two videos below. If I recall correctly you had one of the more visceral immediate responses to the pick a couple of nights ago. (If that was not you then my apologies.)
Anyway, I have come to view the Kon pick as a justifiable homer pick. I am not trying to be provocative and I am certainly not looking for a fight. And believe me, I have accepted the fact that I have to be all in on Kon even though I would have loved to have Tre.
But these videos gave me an expanded perspective:
You only have to watch the 1st five minutes of Sam .
You only have to watch the 1st 2 minutes of Kevin.
I first became aware of basketball (outside of the playground) when MJ won a championship at UNC. For years I accepted the fact that Jordan was a homer for UNC and it showed in how he ran the Hornets. Now we have a pro Duke guy in charge and we saw homer moves from him in the draft. So even though I am not the biggest Duke fan, I accept that the organization seems to have a Duke slant now. (Heck - Plotkin is from Maine and that is where Coop is from!)
With that said, I think that Kon is a justifiable homer pick but I can’t help but watch to see what Tre develops into.
@Steelmatic nailed it. This is 100% where I am. In the days since the draft this conversation has evolved into a clash of ideals (i.e. culture vs. talent). I think we all agree that both are important, but if that’s the way it is, I’d prefer to err leaning towards talent, simply because a guy with potential all-star ability is much harder to find.
As Steel noted, solid culture guys can be found throughout every draft and at affordable salaries in every free agent cycle. The opportunity to draft a guy with all-star upside doesn’t come every year and we don’t know when it will come again. If I’m in the high lottery, I think you have shoot your shot with the best talent available, and most (including me) thought that was Ace. I don’t lend much credence to the threats to hold out. I have to believe he wants to play in the NBA more than he doesn’t want to be in a certain destination, and if he wants to play in the NBA in the foreseeable future, it’ll have to be with whatever team drafted him. But we did what we did and it is what it is. I’ll be a fan either way and I hope it works out for the best.
My thing is even when weighing the culture vs talent thing (we agree Kon checks that box) who was more talented than Kon that was there? I just don’t see it with Ace man. He had a ton of usage and got zero assists on a team that didn’t win at all. Shot on 46/34/69 splits. I see no argument he’s a more talented player than Kon is right now. I guess he makes more difficult shots or something? I’m not really sure that makes me feel any different about him. I’ve been watching more Kon lately and watching him move off the ball is a thing of a beauty. He’s so subtle and deceptive in how he moves without the ball, often creating just a little bit more space which gives him a better look. The analytics suggest Kon could be an elite passer at this level, and I know Ace touches the cones or whatever faster than Kon but there wasn’t a big difference in how they played defense last year. Why wasn’t Kon simply the most talented player there while also checking the culture boxes this FO is clearly prioritizing?
The more I hear about the draft in post mortems, the more I think it wasn’t just our belief but general consensus Kon was a 3rd or 4th pick based on talent alone.
And I think we’d be right. You have to do some serious gymnastics to getting to the belief that Ace is a better prospect. I just don’t see it at all. Those FT numbers for Ace suggest his shot is far from a lock in the pros, and he is a horrific passer. Someone on Real GM ran the numbers and found like, every first round pick that had usage higher than 25% and an assist rate lower than 10%. Not a single high level player on there. It was guys like Shabazz Muhammad and Jabari Parker
Gymnastics to believe that Ace is a better prospect than Kon?? Upside and talent wise??? I’m certainly not the one who’s in to all the analytics and advanced stats but I guess my eyes are doing somersaults, triple beams, cartwheels, you name it.
Kon averaged a whopping 1 assist more than Ace. Playing on arguably the best, most talented team in college basketball with THE best player in college basketball and a universally regarded generational talent to pass to and feed off of, while playing a guard position which is more conducive to facilitating than Ace AND not to mention playing with three other NBA players on his team aside from Flagg. While Ace had absolutely no help outside of Dylan Harper, no one who could put the ball in the basket for him to even facilitate to. And Harper missed significant time with injuries that put even more focus on Ace. Maybe that contributed to his poor shot selection at times because he was asked and expected to do a helluva lot more than Kon. And his shooting percentages were pretty good considering… Harper, the all world point guard, the one primarily responsible for facilitating on this same trash team that you attribute Ace the blame for only averaged less than 3 more assists than Ace. On this same team that “didn’t win at all”.
Ace is significantly better at rebounding, blocking shots than Kon. So from what you’ve seen,You think Kon is more talented and has greater potential on defense than Ace? You think Kon has the greater ability to be the best player on a team, the carrier of a team? To be THE #1 option, go to player on a team than Ace? I’m definitely more eye test than analytics and gymnastics aside I’d have to squint like hell with bifocals on to see what you’re seeing. Agree to disagree. Only time will tell but I got this one bookmarked to revisit over the years and I’ll gladly admit I was wrong if it plays out that way.
Someone posted this on RGM but it was eye opening to me. This is every first round pick since 2008 that had a usage rate higher than 25% and assist percentage of below 10%. Listen I completely agree that people can crunch these numbers in different ways to help fit whichever narrative it is they’re trying to push. But this isn’t really doing that. Simply put right now, Ace has no clue how to create for others and play within the flow of an organized offense. Sure he made some cool shots at Rutgers last year, but it didn’t help them win games.
Meanwhile people LOVE to say that Kon was more of a product of what was around him, but I just don’t buy that all the way. If you really dig into his passing numbers they are special, and I think if he had the ball in his hands more at Duke it would have been on display even more. Kon rarely makes mistakes with the ball in his hands and when he does move the ball it leads to great results. Little lobs to Maluach he was tremendous at, and just finding the holes in the defense in general.
I concede Ace has more defensive upside. But I think it’s fair that Kon’s engagement and feel for the game will help him close some of those gaps. So Kon is a superior passer, superior feel for the game, way better shooting metrics. Yeah… I don’t think it’s crazy to say he’s the better player right now and has the higher ceiling.
It’s all pointless now. I could look dumb for saying this 5 years from now. Kon is a Hornet and Ace is in Utah
Fact of the matter, Kon was in Charlotte on Friday. Ace made headlines for if or when he would be in Utah. It’s little paper cuts that our franchise doesn’t need. And that Kon was working out with Kemba day 0 is what we want in our 4th overall pick.
Absolutely. I was intrigued by Ace’s upside, to the point I would have been okay with drafting him at 6 had we of traded back. But, knowing already how he has conducted himself (yes his representation is clearly poisonous, but Ace shoulders some of the responsibility) I would change my tune dramatically.
I looked at the weights of all the players ranging from 6’5" to 6’6"(without shoes) at the '25 NBA combine. 11 guys in total.
The average?
6’5.4", 206.7 lbs.
Kon?
6’5.0", 219.0 lbs.
One possible word: Beast?
I’m excited about his potential to carve out space for himself in the lane. I want to see dudes bouncing off of him. It’d be cool if he could drop the body fat down another percentage or two, but, whatever.
Thoughts: alright guys, we’ve moved on from mark williams. I never liked his “condor” nickname for some reason. But I say we embrace is and take it back:
Absolutely, Kon is not especially fast or long, but he is built like a tank, and he does get up off the ground from the standing vertical position. So in my mind that makes him at least average as an athlete. Not poor. So effectively he’s an average athlete with incredible shooting and ball skills. Who hustles. I guess I’ll take it.
Aside from his agility and speed, he is a decent athlete. He has such a high BBIQ that I don’t have many concerns about his offense. He’ll find a way, whether it’s 3s from deep or playing off two feet in the paint like a veteran, he’ll contribute.
I just worry about him in one-on-one D. I think people will iso him and clear space for drives, which might, in turn, result in playing too far off and not being able to contest shots effectively. The effort will be there, as will the team D, but time will tell regarding his point on-ball D.
I do wonder if a lower body fat % (someone posted about this) and an increased range of motion in his ankles and hips might alleviate some of his agility concerns. He only needs to get near to average, and I hope our training staff can get him there.
