Why would you wish that on yourself, or anyone really?
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7/16/25 Thoughts on the NBA Finals and the changing nature of free agency via the modern salary cap.
Part 1:
I think another reason why the Magic forced this trade was due to the changing nature of modern NBA free agency. It’s not what it used to be, not even close. Thanks to the gargantuan super max deals, and the new tax structure surrounding the ominous “second apron”, which Zach Lowe has aptly named “the hard cap”. Given that no teams are willing to dabble with the second apron and repeater tax penalties, teams are largely trying to fill in their roster with cheaper contracts. In fact, we will begin to more often see players become casualties of the second apron/hard tax penalties-either traded away for much less than their actual value or teams allowing them to walk instead of re signing them. For example, Boston is screwed. Minnesota is also in a very tight spot.
It’s why Miles Bridges’ 25 million dollar salary is not attractive. At all. The teams who would want a guy like Miles (at 25 million) to help bolster a playoff run have constructed their salary cap like a teetering jenga set. So adding a 25m deal is no easy feat. It’s why there was roughly zero buzz about his free agency (in addition to the felony DV). I believe that any “buzz” was strategically floated out by Miles’ agents, and any other team who wanted to sign him was not willing to go too far about the MLE level amount. Hence, you have the super max players and then surround them with the 6-15m contract players.
You simply cannot build a team through free agency anymore; however, you can add some supplementary pieces-but not long term core roster building. It has to be through trades and the draft.
What i do like about the changing nature of the salary cap is that it has emphasized the importance of drafting well. Specifically, adding versatile, depth players just like the Pacers and Thunder have done.
Look at the Pacers: They traded for Haliburton and Siakam, while rounding out their roster with drafted players who serve versatile roles.
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Part 2:
Just to add, let’s explore the Pacers roster. Their roster building is a direct impact of modern salary cap issues and the rapidly diminished role of free agency. Indiana is a perfect example of how “normal” teams build rosters that can have long term success. When I saw “normal teams”, I mean smaller market teams that don’t have the benefit of being teams like Boston, Lakers, Miami, etc. Whereas, players will take big discounts in free agency just so that they can play there. Indy, OKC, Charlotte, etc. Players aren’t tripping all over themselves to play here.
I’m looking at the Pacers depth chart and I’m not seeing a single player that they’ve signed in free agency over the last 3 seasons. None. Every guy they’ve either drafted or traded for. Yes, they re signed Siakam, but they traded for him to have the rights to offer the super max. Different situation, as TOR wasn’t going to sign him to the higher tier of the super max. Much like the Magic’s trade for Bane, people also responded with “wow that’s a lot to give up for a guy.” Well, yeah. It is. But that’s just how it works. I predict we will look back on the Magic trade for Bane much like everyone now perceives the Siakam to Indy trade. It’ll seem like a retroactive no brainer and will no longer be laughed at.
Haliburton: traded for. Draft by SAC with pick 11
Nemhard: drafted pick 31 in 2022
Nesmith: traded for after Boston gave up on him. BOS drafted at pick 14
Siakam: traded for. TOR drafted at pick 27
Myles Turner: drafted at pick 11 in 2015
TJ McConnel: I think Indy signed him as a UFA like 5-6 years ago?
Ben Sheppard: drafted at pick 26
Mathurin: drafted at pick 6
Jarace Walker: drafted at pick 8
Obi Toppin: traded for
Guys, what Indy has done with their roster is an absolute masterclass in modern NBA roster construction. None of those guys are pricey free agents. Zero. Nada. None. Outside of Mathurin (pick 6) and Jarace Walker (pick 8), none of those players are top 5 draft picks. It also helps that Indy has one of the best coaches who is a HoF tier coach.
The evisceration of nba free agency emphasizes the value of drafting well, but not just getting top 5 picks, but picking well in the late lottery and late first round. Why are mid to late round 1st round picks important? Because they’re generally not going to cost as much to re sign compared to super max salary structures of players in the early portions of the 1st round. Sometimes they do if they really pop like Haliburton or Siakam, but often not.
This is why I wish we could have as many picks in the 2025 first round as possible. Would it be great to have a guy like Harper or Cooper in Charlotte? Hell yes it would, but there are other pathways to being a good team. What Charlotte needs is a core of players that are just really solid, can play defense, shoot threes, guard multiple positions, and have SIZE. Charlotte has their “Haliburton” maestro type player in Melo as is, but we need guys like the Pacers have to surround him.
Don’t necessarily need to hit a grand slam every time in the draft. Hitting singles and doubles to acquire a steady stream of “high floor” players is just as important. Worked for Indy and OKC.
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It’s funny that all of this was brought on by LeBron and Chris Paul a cba or two ago pushing out the NBA middle class.
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I’d like to appreciate everyone for the likes and comments. It doesn’t matter though, because I get paid for word count when I post on HP. Your likes and comments don’t add anything to my paycheck. Having said, it’s only enough money to cover my HP membership fees.
I cannot agree with this enough. Amen. Oh lawd, amen. I am so sorry to people who like miles bridges, but chef, what you said said epitomizes why miles bridges contract or re signing in general was horrible.
Like 7-10 years ago bridges contract structure would’ve been an asset. But not here in reality. The hornets will never trade him. Because they can’t.
And it’ll be another example of the hornets not being to capitalize on assets. And another example of the hornets shooting themselves in the foot by overpaying.
I wouldn’t say it’s untradeable. Even if he doesn’t get any better, it is one of those contracts that becomes 60-75% of the value of a big contract. Say for instance Charlotte kept cap space, they could trade miles and a minor salary to a time like Philly or clips for Paul George and a minor asset.
But to your point, the hornets once again painted themselves into a corner with a “got a resign this guy” type of move
Daaaaaang! That is a long time. I had no idea that Myles was in the league that long. But this is a great opportunity to point out that Myles went through YEARS of injuries and the Pacer’s didn’t trade him out of frustration.
Yet another lesson to be learned from the Pacers.
I thought that Obi was well on his way to being a bust. It would be ironic if he won a title.
From my understanding the Bridges contract wasn’t that bad AND he’s been the most consistent on court player for our team when he’s not had off court stuff. I think when the rest of the team had packed shit up at the end of last season he even showed fairly well. NOW, I do understand most don’t want to take the risk given his issues outside of basketball but his ability and consistency on the court don’t make the contract all that bad. Someone possibly could want him and I think we could move him without too much damage if our FO is worth a crap. That’s coming from someone who never wanted to draft him in the first place.
I will give Miles credit when it’s due. I thought he stepped up his game and played a better, more well rounded game. Coincidentally, this is when his threes started to go in. I don’t feel like going back and looking, but I remember a stretch of a couple weeks when he was red hot from three towards the latter stages of the season. It’s tough when he’s shooting 30% from three. Since Miles is a negative on the defensive end on the floor (both individual and team defender), to make a bigger impact on the game his threes need to drop at the 37-39% rate instead of the 30-31% rate we’ve generally seen.
But here’s miles bridges’ major flaw. In the NBA, if you’re not a good outside shooter, you better REALLY make up for it in other facets of the game. Is he a great defender? No. Is he a great passer/facilator? No. Is he a great rebounder? Good, but relies too much on athleticism instead of technique. Can he attack the basket? Yeah, he’s above average. He’s started to get to the line more. Edit: Miles is 42nd in the league at free throw attempts.
So we have a guy who shot 31% from three last year, (and is generally a 30-33% three point shooter) who is also a poor defender.
If we again look at the Pacers and Thunder rosters. Their rangy guys are generally good shooters and defenders. Siakam and J Williams, the starting power forwards. Shooters and defenders, check.
Miles is an exceptional free throw shooter. I believe he was in the top 20 in the entire league in terms of percentage from the line.
His three point shot has always been a mystery to me. He’ll go through super hot stretches where it looks smooth and natural, and then stretches when he’s churning out 0/5 nights. When his three is off he puts up some spectacular bricks.
Last thoughts on draft night. I thought about Bill Simmons’ “Book of Basketball” from 10-15 years ago where he breaks down the “secret” of winning basketball and outlines what qualities championship teams tend to share. I thought of this within the context of my desire for the Hornets to add high character guys to build a foundational culture and winning environment. Also my desire to see the Hornets add versatile “high floor” guys who know their roles and have clarity on who they are. I don’t mind slightly older players because they’re often more physically and emotionally ready. It takes maturity and real work to demonstrate upward, consistent progress each year in college. A consistently upward trend to a player’s game is usually great news. They also tend to know their roles. Here’s Bill’s general outline:
1. Build potential champions around one great player. "He doesn’t have to be a super-duper star or someone who can always score at will. Just someone who leads by example, kills himself on a daily basis, raises the competitive nature of his team.
I think all of us really want Melo to be this guy. Yeah, I do talk about trading him in an effort to more fully reset. It’s true, I do. To be honest, that’s more about his lack of availability, and then only partly concerns with the talent. But the Hornets will always get only 50 cents on the dollar in a Melo trade. So let’s ride it out. There is still part of me that believes Melo could be our version of Indy’s Haliburton. He’s quirky and different. Lets funnel that into the Hornets new identity. And all collectively pray for his ankles.
2. You surround that star with one or two elite sidekicks who understand their place in the team’s hierarchy, don’t obsess over stats, and fill in every blank they can.
Think of Indiana’s Pascal Siakam and OKC’s Jalen Williams (we can make a case for Jalen Williams ascending into super star status over the next year or so). I fully think Brandon Miller can be one of these guys. I don’t think that Miller has a super star ceiling and will actually have a better, more successful career if he stays in his lane. Brandon doesn’t seem like a “I want to put up empty stats so I can get PAID by a mediocre team with a bunch of cap space” kind of guy. Miles Bridges is NOT one of these guys. When Miller gets hurt…I think that this deficit makes Melo look bad. More on Bridges later…
3. From that framework, you complete your nucleus with top-notch role players and/or character guys who know their place, don’t make mistakes and won’t threaten that unselfish culture, and coaching staff’s vision.
This is what I think the Hornets are really missing. This is what I’d like to see Miles Bridges slide into, which would require him to humble himself (even more). But I don’t even think he can fit into this category. Look at the qualifier, “doesn’t make mistakes.” Miles has low BBIQ and is not a good individual or team defender. For more casual fans, I think the athletic, explosive plays act as a cheap cologne for his poor defense, mental lapses, and poor BBIQ. Don’t come at me, I have given Miles credit for his attempt at improvements this year for a few months. In a nutshell, the Hornets are completely lacking these kinds of players. Lastly, this category is my plea for “real adults in the locker room” types. Doesn’t have to be a ten year vet, but young players can have mature, unselfish attitudes also.
4. You need to stay health and maybe catch a few breaks.
Well. I don’t have much to say on this one as a Hornets fan. Other than “fuck”.
Anyways, back to the draft. After this year’s playoffs and Finals showdown between the Pacers and Thunder, I’ve really shifted my attention in roster construction.
-Both of these teams have depth, versatility, size, defenders, and capable shooters up and down their bench. There was no tightening of rotations, but a firm commitment to a 9 man rotation (sometimes 10 man) in the playoffs. Given how long the season is, this is a must.
-They both have the super star and elite sidekick combo (Hali/Siakam+SGA/Williams).
-They both constructed their rosters largely through the draft with very little use of free agency.
-They both acquired their super stars via strategic trade.
In this draft, I do not care about drafting Charlotte’s next potential high end super star. I want high quality, high character, hard working, unselfish attitudes, and high floor players. I want guys with size who can play defense and shoot. I want guys who know their roles and have spent time improving their games to even be here. I want a Nesmith, Nembhart, Cason Wallace, Mathurin, Jalen Williams type. Guys who work hard and have something to prove.
Everyone punishes players in the draft for not being 18/19 years old. I think that’s bullshit. It’s actually a major NBA pet peeve of mine. Jalen Williams was a Junior and was 21 years old. Pick 12 overall. Turned out fine for him and OKC I’d say.
This has been my plea for drafting the likes of Nique Clifford, Rasheer Fleming, and Cedric Coward. I’m sorry, but I’m out on the Ace Bailey types.
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Great read sir. I share the same thoughts on Lenelo. I honestly think he can be a better player than Halliburton. He’s just always hurt
We really need our Pascal Siakam type guy. Can that guy be Tijan?
Granted… I’m still on the Ace train bc i see the massive upside. But I do get how his demeanor may not fit.
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And that’s the wild thing about it. Even though I’m out on Ace, I wouldn’t be mad if he was drafted. I totally get the upside and the vision there. I want Ace to play the stretch PF role, but it appears he and his camp see him as a guard. I struggle with that.
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I definitely do not see him as a guard either. Stretch 4 or a really long SF would be great to pare with Brandon at SG. He, Lamelo, Brandon, Mark is super long.
The 2025 NBA Draft Writeup (That No One Asked For)
Alright guys, here we go. With the Charlotte Hornets churning out a top 5 best draft in the NBA 2025 draft this year, I have a lot of stoke going on. Which gives me another reason to run my mouth and clog up HP with shit no one really wants to read (as if I needed another reason, but at least it’s on a positive note!) Give me an inch of positivity, and I’ll crank out 1,000 words of bullshit.
[Also, if you want the TLDR version: Sion James could be our Lu Dort. They have nearly the same profile. 2025 Hornets draft grade: A.]
I hate reading my own stuff and wish I had a Men In Black mind eraser. In fact, I wish I had that Men in Black mind eraser for the past 10 years of Hornets basketball. But it seems like Jeff Peterson and co are attempting to mind erase our shame with their alarmingly competent approach to running a real franchise. So here you go. (Can anyone photoshop Jeff Peterson’s face onto Will Smith using the mind eraser?)
For the past month leading up to the draft I have been hammering the table for the Hornets to copy the Pacers and Thunder formula for winning. Their formula is as follows: draft exceptionally well, versatile players, players with size, shooters from all positions, players who can defend, strategic use of trades, sparse but strategic use of free agency, and mature high character/hard working guys on the roster. This Hornets team does not need another mega star. They need smart players that can compliment the high end skills of Melo and Brandon Miller, and make up for their weaknesses.
For the last two years, I’ve been begging for the Hornets to have some adults in the locker room. Adults doesn’t have to mean 10 year savvy vets either. Look at Jalen Williams for OKC. He’s 24, but speaks and acts like he’s been in the league for 10 years. The entire OKC team is a very calm, cool, even keeled team. The Pacers as well.
Well, Jeff Peterson and co. are well on their ways to replicating this. We do live in a copycat league. The Hornets welcome Kon, McNeely, Sion, and Kalkbrenner to the mix. Don’t get it mixed up. All four guys will be seeing time this year. These guys aren’t projects who need to be coddled in Greensboro for a year or two. All of them can shoot and make quick, smart decisions with the basketball.
The biggest things: we got players that are shooters with size. Kon: 6’7, McNeely: 6’8, Sion James: 6’5, Kalkbrenner: 7’1. And yes, Kalkbrenner is a decent shooter. Shot 3’s at 34% on almost 2 attempts, and a 70% FT shooter.
Kon Knueppel: (aka Kneuppel Triple) and play guy who will never be flashy, but is an efficient scorer on low usage. Look at Kon and Cooper Flagg’s analytics, they were insanely efficient on low usage numbers. Flagg historically efficient, and Kon also quite good himself. Kon is a great shooter, good passer, and good secondary facilitator with high BBIQ. Easy fit. With the Hornets ranking 28th in three point shooting, it’ll be a different world with having real shooters for Melo to find. With the absence of Tre Mann, the Hornets never really had any secondary facilitators last year. At all. Even with a healthy Brandon Miller, I don’t consider him a ball mover. In fact, I cringe when I see him start to freelance dribble.
Liam McNeely: (aka Stealy McNeely) What an absolute fucking steal at pick 29. Are you kidding me? Like Kon, Liam is another good shooter and connective passer, smart player, secondary facilitator. I’d highly encourage you to look past his freshman year shooting, and a lot of the negatives that people focus on. The word is that he was battling mono for half the season. Also, Uconn didn’t have a good PG, and Liam was shifted into more of a ball handling, distributer roll. Was asked to be more of a creator, dribble shooter than he was used to. Without a true PG, he had to find a lot of his own shots-hence the 32% three point shooting. But it did help McNeely develop more dribbling skills. I cannot believe he dropped to 29. He’ll be another one of those guys that people say 3 years after he was drafted, “wait, why didn’t anyone draft him earlier?”
Ryan Kalkbrenner: (aka Ryan Blockbrenner) Again, what a steal. I have a secret for everyone: he’s 23 years old!! Oh no, he’s so old! He’ll get is AARP card in a few years! Sorry, the biggest draft pet peeve of mine is when guys are vastly dropped in value solely because they’re older than 19 years old. I could find a less uncouth way to say this, but I think that’s incredibly fucking short sided. Kalkbrenner has a 7.7 block percentage on the year (2.7bpg and 3.1bpg last season), which is a strong mark for a big man prospect. What makes Kalkbrenner a bit more unique, though, is that he tallies his blocks without fouling much at all. He averages only 2.2 fouls per 100 possessions. In case you didn’t know: That’s a truly absurd number. Kalkbrenner is a brilliant defender, the premier drop defender in the draft, and is a guru of the lost art of “defending without fouling.”
Sion James: (aka The Siontologist, aka The Siontist, aka Sionide) I’m still workshopping that nickname. Sionide is supposed to sound like cyanide. Eh. Okay, here we go. I will be 100% transparent. I did not like this pick when I heard it. And I will own my part of that-it’s because I wanted Rasher Fleming and I’m annoyed that having taken Salaun last year is why the Hornets didn’t draft a PF of Fleming’s quality. He’s a 6’9 defender with good measurables and a 39% three point shooter. I also don’t believe Salaun will pan out, but we’re talking about Sion and not Salaun or Fleming.
Are you ready? Sion James can be the Charlotte version of OKC’s Lu Dort. I might be wrong, but I doubt it. Let’s look at the numbers. I might be drunk on the OKC team and their Finals run, but stick with me.
NBAdraftnet Grades:
Dort: 89
Sion: 89
Dort: 6’4
Sion: 6’5
Dort: 220 pounds
Sion: 220 pounds
Dort: 6’8 wingspan
Sion: 6’7 wingspan
Dort: 8’5 standing reach
Sion: 8’4 standing reach
Dort: 38" vertical leap
Sion: 39.5" vertical leap
I cannot make that shit up. It gets better:
Are you following me yet? Check out both of their draft profile analyses on NBAdraftnet. It’s pretty wild. I will be honest, one of my biggest draft boners is for prospects who display steady, consistent improvement every year in college. Sion drastically improved his outside shooting. I will be honest, I had written off Sion’s shooting until I took a look at the numbers. It gets weirder. Let’s look at Dort and Sion’s improvement as three point shooters:
Dort: 29%, 34%, 33%, 33%, 39%, 41%
Sion: 28%, 33%, 31%, 38%, 41%
Are you fucking kidding me? Cmon. That’s absolutely wild.
He’s a strong guy who is physically NBA ready, a rugged defender, can handle the basketball, make passes, and has drastically improved his outside shooting. He does everything that Dort does, he’s built like Dort, has the same profile as Dort.
Everyone, the Charlotte Hornets very well may have their own Lu Dort. I might be wrong, but I doubt it.
I do love that there was clear improvement in Sion’s 3 ball. Tells me he can commit to get better and actually get better. Easier said than done.
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I promise, I’ll read the rest of the post.
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That’s why I’m high on experienced college players than most draft people. If a 22-23 year old has shown consistent improvement over the course of their college career, that is a very good sign. It’s easier to project them since we have more data and clear examples of building their games. Also more clarity on their ceiling vs. floor. Most multi year college players have more maturity since they’ve been a part of a serious collegiate program.
At the end of the day, not every pick needs to be an absolute homerun, or a young raw talent. With the new reality of the hard cap era, it makes building a sustainable roster via the draft that much more important for salary reasons. Especially building depth with late 1st rounders outside of the lottery and 2nd round gems. You just can’t build a team via free agency anymore-particularly if you’re a charlotte.