Powell’s “Old Man Yelling at Purple and Teal Clouds”: 10/22/2024
Who is the X-Factor to unlock the Hornets 2024/25 Season?
A Quick Note on How We Got Here:
At several points between the trade deadline in 2024 and the subsequent offseason, I had to pinch myself to provide reassurance that what was happening in Charlotte was indeed reality. The old guard was traded prior to the deadline during a sequence of relatively shrewd moves that looked promising at the time, which have aged like fine wine. This flurry of action set the stage for what was to come in Charlotte over the next several months. A young, yet experienced Jeff Peterson was hired-only to be followed by hiring the NBA’s most coveted assistant coaches, Charles Lee (also young, yet experienced). Peterson demonstrated his acumen by several moves that allowed the Hornets to acquire more 2nd round picks simply for just being there and showing up. Okay, the team did have to send James Nnaji and take on some minor salary to help facilitate the Knicks-Wolves swap (which I think was a good basketball trade for both teams). However, it’s Peterson’s willingness to simply “show up” and assert the team into positions to grow and build: by being proactive in collecting assets. I agree with the notion of “you often can create your own luck”.
The bottom line of what I’m trying to get across is that because of what has transpired since February 2024, the season just feels different. Because well, everything is different from top to bottom. The new ownership, management, and coaches are actually building something with new ideas, energy, and a youthful excitement. What’s the old cliche? “If nothing changes, then nothing changes”.
X-Factor Candidates:
Now that this franchise seems to be rebuilding the structural foundation, I see more possibilities for success and growth: real, sustainable growth. So who or what will be the x factor this year? There are a lot of candidates for this one, with no real wrong answer.
-Coach Lee could certainly be the x factor for team success this year. Will he be able to install a new system? Can he get the guys to buy into defensive accountability and limit dribble drive penetration? Can Charles Lee help LaMelo Ball more fully buy into the competitive side and install a system that maximizes his talent? Or will Coach Lee be able to do little things like draw up an inbounds play better than any previous Hornets coaches? (Pretty low bar there). This may be a little premature, but I think Lee can do all of the above. As transformative as I believe Lee will be, this is his first year at the helm. I know we’ll see flashes of that improvement across the board this year, but this may be better to evaluate after season’s end and well into season number two at the helm. Having Lee has already garnered results. Given Lee’s acumen and pedigree-I think the team is in very good hands.
-The more obvious and more popular answer to the x-factor/skeleton key question is undoubtedly LaMelo Ball. I’ll keep this one brief. Without getting into the details of why he is so critical to this team’s success, he simply has to be healthy and on the floor. Full stop. The difference between having Melo on the floor or out with injury is stark. He just has to be healthy. For this thought experiment, I will be framing this write up through the lens that LaMelo Ball will be mostly healthy this season. It’s just too obvious to say “Melo being available is the x factor”. That’s akin to the assertion that the key to living is breathing #analysis.
-Next up, how about rookie sensation Brandon Miller? I do have the humility to say that I was dead wrong about Brandon Miller pre-draft. I atoned for my sins about 8-10 games into the regular season last year. I always thought Miller could be good, I just did not forecast him being this good. So is Miller the x factor this year? Maybe. I think that’s a lot to put onto a second year player entering his sophomore NBA campaign. Having said, it’s hard to envision Miller not taking a step forward this year given the skill he displayed last year. But how much better can he get? Could he be in for a “sophomore slump”?
I’m not sure that I truly believe in the “sophomore slump” phenomenon that gets tossed around. Someone much more intelligent than myself downloaded a data set from 1995 to 2019 to analyze the rookie to sophomore years of 330 NBA players. The data shows that only 25% of second year players “get worse” from their rookie campaigns. Also, about 73% of players improved from their first to second years. Furthermore, the data shows that for the top 5 rookies of each year, they improved their second season 71% of the time-which matches the initial trends stated above. So do I think Branon Miller will improve from last year? Probably. I have a hard time imagining his performance dropping off a cliff. While improvement is certainly reasonable, Miller would have to blast off into all star/all NBA territory to be considered the x factor for the Hornets season, while an exciting prospect-is quite unlikely.
The Answer:
This leaves us with Mark Williams. I fully believe that 22 year old Mark Williams is the skeleton key that can unlock a higher level of success this season. He’s the most underrated center in the NBA. Also, can one be underrated if one doesn’t play? The much maligned big man entering his third season will dictate how far this team can go and what they will achieve. Even with a healthy Melo Ball, the team’s ceiling is capped without Mark Williams. (A quick moment of appreciation). I appreciate having Nick Richards as a backup center. His contract is great, he can grab some boards, dunk it, and knock down some free throws. All great attributes. But the possibility of the Hornets facing another season of watching Richards start and play about 30 minutes a game, makes me want to pull my fingernails out with pliers. Cue Steve Clifford:
[While writing this I got to about this point when I saw the news that Mark Williams was in a walking boot. I shit you not. I slowly closed my computer, walked away, and did not return to writing this for about two weeks or so. I will pretend that the Williams injury didn’t happen upon my return.]
A reminder: Mark’s 7’6.5” wingspan and 9’9” standing reach. For reference, Victor Wembanyama has an 8’0” wingspan. Bol Bol’s wingspan was a massive 8’6”, but he was an unreal 7’7”. The absence of that for this team is undeniably debilitating-on either side of the floor. Williams, somehow even more snakebitten by injuries than even LaMelo Ball, often feels like the forgotten man on the Hornets-which is fair. Mark only played an abysmal 19 games last season, so the sample size is small. During those 19 games, Mark averaged a robust 12.7ppg and 9.7rbs, along with 1.1 blocks within the confines of an averaged 26.7 minutes per game time. Oh, and shooting an obnoxious 65fg%. He added his first 20/20 game to his resume.
While on the floor, he is the giant pick setting, devastating rim running, offensive board gobbling, shot altering, floor running, athletic big man that the Hornets have needed since…Alonzo Mouring?? Mark’s offensive rebounding is elite (96th percentile) and would help get the team easy baskets when the threes aren’t hitting. The Hornets’ offensive efficiency finished at an ugly 28th last season, which would have been aided by a clean up big like Williams. Sorry for the word, but it felt appropriate: the offense looked constipated last year. The basketball laxatives for struggling offenses are close, high percentage shots from offensive boards and pick and roll dunks. Mark is an intelligent pick and roll player who can get easy dunks and he’s a far better rebounder and defensive player than Nick Richards. The 21pt/24reb game against the Wizards included FIFTEEN offensive rebounds.
Mark is a walking double double. We need that.
Quick notes on areas of improvement for Mark:
His defensive positioning needs to improve, as well as his strength. I do think there is room for Mark to get stronger, which will help, but I certainly do not see him ever becoming a very physical player. Mark has great touch, finesse, and footwork. He’s not an insider banger; however, I’ve noticed that his positioning can be poor at times. Defensively, he will routinely allow players to set up too deep into the paint before he engages.
Lastly, I believe we saw Mark out of position, picking up too many fouls, and bad decisions on when to challenge shots often because his teammates in front of him allow opposing players easy access to the rim. It’s no mystery that the Charlotte perimeter defense was a huge joke and Hornets defenders were mostly human turnstiles. I think of the matadors of Spain who demonstrate their skill by allowing the bull to pass by their capes and then shouting during a bullfight:, “Olé!”. The Charlotte perimeter defense is the Olé! of NBA defenses, and this put too much emphasis on Mark Williams trying to clean up constant errors.This essentially forces Mark to constantly out of position in an attempt to anticipate the perimeter breakdown and try to erase the mistake.
Final Thoughts:
The over under for the Hornet’s record is 29.5, odds to win the division at +5500, and odds to win the NBA Finals at +100000. A $20 bet to make a cool $20,000 is a pretty tempting possibility…if you have a ton of disposable income that you’re desperately wanting to throw away. Despite not taking that finals bet at +100000 odds, I will take the over on 29.5 games and maybe toss a few dollars down for fun on the +5500 winning the division odds.
If we get the true breakthrough, breakout Mark Williams season? I’ll take a 44 win season. He’s that important.
-Until next time. Be safe, wear your ankle braces, and pretend Mark Williams wasn’t injured a few weeks ago.