2021-22 Eastern Conference thoughts

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Team Last Year Last Year % BSH Last Year Projected Projected % BSH Projected Vegas O/U BSH Vegas
Atlanta 41-31 0.569 Moderate Sell 49-33 0.576 Moderate Sell 46.5 Hold
Boston 36-36 0.500 Hold 45-37 0.549 Sell 45.5 Sell
Brooklyn 48-24 0.667 Hold 57-25 0.695 Moderate Sell 56.5 Moderate Sell
Charlotte 33-39 0.458 Moderate Buy 38-44 0.463 Moderate Buy 38.5 Moderate Buy
Chicago 31-41 0.431 Moderate Buy 44-38 0.537 Moderate Sell 42.5 Hold
Cleveland 22-50 0.306 Moderate Buy 31-51 0.378 Hold 26.5 Moderate Buy
Detroit 20-52 0.278 Hold 25-57 0.305 Hold 25.5 Hold
Indiana 34-38 0.472 Buy 34-48 0.415 Buy 42.5 Hold
Miami 40-32 0.556 Moderate Sell 50-32 0.610 Sell 48.5 Moderate Sell
Milwuakee 46-26 0.639 Moderate Sell 56-26 0.683 Sell 54.5 Moderate Sell
New York 41-31 0.569 Sell 37-45 0.412 Moderate Buy 41.5 Moderate Sell
Orlando 21-51 0.292 Hold 22-60 0.268 Hold 22.5 Hold
Philadelphia 49-23 0.681 Sell 51-31 0.622 Sell 50.5 Sell
Toronto 27-45 0.375 Hold 41-41 0.500 Sell 35.5 Hold
Washington 34-38 0.472 Hold 38-44 0.463 Hold 33.5 Moderate Buy

So this is a little thought fun I was having walking the dog this morning, to put last year’s results, this year’s projections, and this year’s odds into a Buy Sell Hold matrix and see what shakes out. I am curious what others think. Do note, where I am saying Buy or Hold, I mean in more of an “outperform vs underperform” sense than “more in that direction” sense. E.g. a “Buy” on IND at 34-38 last year means I expect they will overperform that number this year, not that I “buy” that trend.

Source of the data for the Team by Team predictions was a Bleacher Report article here, ESPN standings for last year here, and DraftKings O/U from here.

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A strong Lamelo buy pre preseason.

If expecting Mello game plateau or worsen, you take 38 win or worse.

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I expect Melo to improve some . But I think he is still a year away with hard work to be all star Mello
It is a lot of real good players in the east . Me I think the league is more balanced now than I can ever remember. With that said 38 to 40 is about right,

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So the point of this exercise for me was that even if LaMelo hits a high return or Gordon plays 79 games or if Miles and PJ miss a load of time due to COVID, it’s all more dependent on what other teams do around them. E.g. If MIA, BOS, NYK don’t hit peak expectations, and TOR, and WAS just meet expectations (all Vegas odds I am talking here), then the world is our oyster. If those guys hit the other way, it might not matter if LaMelo, Gordo, and Terry hit 100% of expectations, we’ll be in a dogfight for the play in. Just a weird year upcoming and I am here for it.

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Atlanta
Milwaukee
Boston
Brooklyn
Phil
Miami
Chicago

All significantly better than Charlotte. New York was a flash in the pan last year. I feel Indiana may blow things up this year if they don’t start really strong.

Philly/NY/Brooklyn/Boston will definitely be chipping at each other’s win totals but they will have to really do well out of division so the whole lot may be on overdrive all year.

If the hornets stay healthy they should be a 38+ win team. If they don’t they could be a 30 win team. If melo jumps bigly, they could be a 45 win team.